In short, no. I don't think the state field will be big enough for it to become the predominant factor, and still fairly doubtful it will be a HUGE difference at the regional level. Maybe the difference between SW#2 and SW#5 if it ends up being a tight race, but the #2-4 runners are the biggest keys to finishing well at NXN Regionals and Nationals.

By the way, just pulled this up: Utah 5A Projected scores (including only teams that will make it to state, and teams that I have been keeping track of) ... does not include results from regional meets that have already taken place. Obviously, when the rest of the teams are included in the field, scores for teams with weaker #3/4/5 runners are going to go up by more than those teams that are strong at those spots, but for a general starting point this shows that the race for second is very tight, and the race for fourth is going to be just as tight (and those groups aren't separated by enough to think Westlake couldn't finish second, for example.. Alta is a bit more of a stretch, but still in the running if they put it together on the same day at state while others don't).

44 American Fork UT
88 Lone Peak UT
90 Bingham UT
105 Riverton UT
113 Davis UT
122 Westlake UT
151 Alta UT
214 Hillcrest UT

In short, no. I don't think the state field will be big enough for it to become the predominant factor, and still fairly doubtful it will be a HUGE difference at the regional level. Maybe the difference between SW#2 and SW#5 if it ends up being a tight race, but the #2-4 runners are the biggest keys to finishing well at NXN Regionals and Nationals.

By the way, just pulled this up: Utah 5A Projected scores (including only teams that will make it to state, and teams that I have been keeping track of) ... does not include results from regional meets that have already taken place. Obviously, when the rest of the teams are included in the field, scores for teams with weaker #3/4/5 runners are going to go up by more than those teams that are strong at those spots, but for a general starting point this shows that the race for second is very tight, and the race for fourth is going to be just as tight (and those groups aren't separated by enough to think Westlake couldn't finish second, for example.. Alta is a bit more of a stretch, but still in the running if they put it together on the same day at state while others don't).

44 American Fork UT
88 Lone Peak UT
90 Bingham UT
105 Riverton UT
113 Davis UT
122 Westlake UT
151 Alta UT
214 Hillcrest UT

Because Lone Peak ran so well at Wasatch (though I'll be reviewing the ratings for that race again this week).

Don't be surprised if Bingham is ahead of Lone Peak in the next regional update, however - they've been gaining ground, and eventually Bingham's consistency will overtake Lone Peak's inconsistent tendencies, and that's especially likely at the state meet and beyond (when consistency begins to REALLY matter).